Tuesday, October 13, 2020
With the 2020 presidential election underway, now could be the time for companies and organizations to contemplate the potential impacts of the following presidential administration’s insurance policies and priorities. Within the first installment of the Ok&L Gates 2020 election collection, we examined former Vice President Joe Biden’s potential coverage agenda if elected president. For our second installment, we spotlight President Donald J. Trump’s potential coverage priorities if he’s elected to serve for a second time period.
President Trump’s administration would have the benefit of a seamless transition because the incumbent administration. In truth, many federal companies started preparations over the summer time for a second time period agenda by outreach to stakeholders. We anticipate that the Trump administration would proceed to pursue a deregulatory agenda designed to amend or remove rules which can be thought of ineffective, duplicative, or out of date. Moreover, continued efforts to pursue administrative options would probably proceed, particularly if the dynamic on Capitol Hill makes it difficult to enact priorities of the administration by laws.
As we glance past the November election, it is very important start contemplating and planning for the potential coverage implications ought to President Trump be reelected. Under is a listing of potential coverage priorities which may be pursued throughout a second time period:
COVID-19: The incoming administration must proceed to give attention to COVID-19 reduction and financial restoration points. Key areas of focus for the Trump administration would probably embody improvement and distribution of a vaccine, continued financial restoration, making certain the supply of private protecting gear (PPE) for frontline employees, and the re-shoring of crucial provide chains and manufacturing (akin to prescribed drugs, PPE, medical gear, semiconductors, and so on.).
Well being Care: With the Supreme Court docket set to listen to arguments on a pivotal case on the constitutionality of the Reasonably priced Care Act, well being care coverage could once more take heart stage. Whereas consensus on complete well being care reform continues to be debated throughout the Republican Celebration, President Trump’s priorities would probably embody defending people with preexisting situations, decreasing the price of prescribed drugs, curbing shock billing, and decreasing well being care insurance coverage premiums. The administration is more likely to proceed to pursue many of those precedence points by administrative motion.
Tax: President Trump would probably push to make the tax cuts enacted beneath the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act everlasting. As well as, he has expressed assist for lowering the tax charges on long-term capital positive aspects and for indexing capital positive aspects for inflation, in addition to decreasing the center class tax charge to 15 p.c. He has additionally acknowledged he plans to increase or forgive the worker payroll tax deferral instituted through Presidential Memorandum on eight August 2020. President Trump would probably double down on alternative zones by rising funding and additional increasing into economically distressed areas. Lastly, President Trump has expressed a need to create “Made in America” tax credit to encourage home job creation.
Infrastructure: President Trump has lengthy advocated for rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure. Constructing on beforehand launched legislative objectives, the Trump administration would probably advocate for passage of a complete infrastructure bundle centered on enhancing America’s roads, highways, airports, and good grid. Because the nation recovers from the impression of COVID-19, this can be framed as an financial stimulus bundle to assist create jobs. President Trump’s proposed second time period agenda additionally signifies a give attention to making a nationwide high-speed wi-fi Web community.
Monetary Companies: President Trump would probably proceed efforts that restrict fiduciary issues to “pecuniary” or financial-related points, with a selected give attention to limiting the power to speculate based mostly on environmental, social and governance components. The Trump administration would search to finalize current proposed guidelines presently pending on the Securities and Trade Fee and Division of Labor (DOL) on this space. Moreover, the administration would work to finalize the DOL’s proposed rule on proxy advisors. Lastly, with respect to housing finance reform, the administration would work in direction of releasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship.
Commerce: President Trump would probably proceed his give attention to negotiating commerce offers that shield American jobs. An elevated give attention to bilateral agreements is predicted, with potential free commerce agreements with the UK and Taiwan as priorities. With respect to China, President Trump would virtually definitely proceed work to “finish our reliance on China,” together with a renewed give attention to returning jobs and manufacturing to the US.1
Expertise: The know-how sector would proceed to be the “level of the spear” within the administration’s ongoing efforts to decouple the American and Chinese language economies. Additionally, we anticipate the administration to pursue antitrust instances towards know-how corporations, bolstered by bipartisan congressional assist. The administration would proceed its give attention to social media’s perceived liberal bias and push to restrict part 230 legal responsibility immunity. Lastly, the administration additionally could attempt to resurrect efforts to forestall using encryption that can’t be accessed by regulation enforcement with a warrant.
Protection/Area: President Trump has dedicated to sustaining the present, traditionally excessive ranges of funding for the Division of Protection with a give attention to China as the US’ key strategic competitor and adversary, modernizing the pressure with an emphasis on microelectronics/5G, synthetic intelligence, cybersecurity, hypersonics, nuclear, and area. His administration would proceed to extend integration of nationwide safety, business, and civil area to advertise the accountable use of area and deter aggression in an more and more contested surroundings. Moreover, President Trump would search to strengthen home manufacturing for crucial provide chains and prioritize assist of the protection industrial base, which is crucial to financial prosperity and nationwide safety.
Immigration: We anticipate President Trump would proceed to push for a merit-based immigration system whereas concurrently persevering with to ship on his dedication to construct a wall on the southern border. We additional anticipate the administration to revisit the Deferred Motion for Childhood Arrivals program, which has been the topic of a number of courtroom instances for the reason that administration moved to phase-out this system early in its tenure.
Training: The Trump administration would give attention to college alternative, together with making college vouchers or scholarships out there to present mother and father extra flexibility in sending their kids to a distinct college, akin to a constitution college.
Vitality: As a part of his proposed second time period agenda, President Trump mentioned that persevering with his deregulatory agenda to advertise power independence would stay a precedence, together with a give attention to home hydrocarbon and nuclear power manufacturing in addition to exports of U.S. power assets, akin to pure gasoline.
With respect to cupboard officers and senior employees, we anticipate to see turnover after the election. Many senior appointees dedicated to stick with the administration by the reelection, and would naturally search to transition to different employment after November. Moreover, there may be presently one cupboard official who would should be confirmed by the Senate—Performing Secretary of Homeland Safety Chad Wolf. You will need to notice that President Trump’s skill to simply affirm new cupboard members might be impacted relying on the make-up of the Senate within the 117th Congress.
In abstract, President Trump’s second time period would characteristic a continuation of insurance policies and priorities from his first time period as he continues to construct his presidential legacy. President Trump would probably double down on his administration’s signature coverage priorities as he navigates a world that shall be eternally modified within the wake of COVID-19. Whereas there are a variety of instruments at President Trump’s disposal to allow him to behave unilaterally on sure points, the composition of the 117th Congress shall be instrumental in figuring out which of his legislative priorities could be enacted.
Steven A. McCain, R. Paul Stimers, and Lauren M. Flynn contributed to this text.
1 See https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/trump-campaign-announces-president-trumps-2nd-term-agenda-fighting-for-you/.
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