Lockdown is easing. Individuals are returning to work and retailers are lifting their shutters. However we don’t have a vaccine and we’re a great distance from reaching herd immunity – so this new-found freedom is tainted with concern: concern of a second wave of infections.
Certainly, individuals are already speaking a couple of “second wave” hitting China and Iran. However the idea of a second wave is flawed and creates harmful misconceptions in regards to the pandemic.
The thought of a second wave stems from the flawed comparability with the seasonality of the flu virus.
Early within the pandemic, many specialists mentioned the similarities between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus. They’re each viruses that trigger respiratory infections – principally delicate. Influenza can be the reason for most up-to-date earlier pandemics. From these similarities, it was tempting to imagine that COVID-19 would behave equally to a flu pandemic. But these are very totally different viruses with very totally different behaviour.
COVID-19 has a far higher fatality price in contrast with the flu, together with a a lot increased price of hospitalisations and extreme an infection. Additionally, influenza is a seasonal virus. Yearly we see instances of the flu start in early autumn, enhance over the winter after which wind down as we method summer time. This repeats yearly, and so if a brand new pressure of flu emerges we’d most likely have a primary wave of infections throughout winter-spring, then the virus would come again in a second wave in autumn-winter the next 12 months.
Essentially the most extreme pandemic ever recorded was the so-called Spanish flu pandemic. Throughout this pandemic, the virus contaminated the northern hemisphere through the spring of 1918, died down some through the summer time of 1918 after which got here again in higher power within the autumn of 1918. It’s tempting to take a position that COVID-19 will decline or disappear through the summer time, solely to reappear because the climate will get colder. However we don’t know if COVID-19 is a seasonal virus.
Emergency hospital through the 1918 flu epidemic, Camp Funston, Kansas.
Otis Historic Archives/Wikimedia Commons
The flu has decrease transmission in the summertime as a result of the mixture of upper humidity, elevated UV gentle and folks spending much less time inside, shut to one another. A few of these elements may also have an effect on COVID-19, however we actually don’t know to what extent.
Even when seasonal elements have an effect on COVID-19 transmission, the unfold of a brand new virus by means of a inhabitants that has no immunity will overwhelm any affect of seasonal elements. The 2009 swine flu pandemic virus and the 1918 pandemic virus have been new viruses that individuals had no immunity to. Because of this, the virus didn’t go away in the summertime, although transmission was considerably lowered. So we can not count on that COVID-19 will behave as a seasonal virus and diminish over the summer time solely to return with a second wave within the autumn.
The primary wave hasn’t ended
Apart from seasonality, there may be another excuse the thought of a second wave is flawed. The idea of a second wave implies that it’s one thing inevitable, one thing intrinsic to how the virus behaves. It goes away for a bit, then comes again with a vengeance. However this concept fails to consider the significance of ongoing preventative actions and portrays us as helpless and on the whim of this pathogen.
We’re not between waves. We now have new instances within the UK every single day. We’re in an ebb and move of COVID-19 transmission that’s regularly affected by our precautionary actions.
Letting up on precautions will result in a rise in instances. That is the brand new regular and what to anticipate till we have now an efficient vaccine with vital inhabitants uptake. Till then we have now to depend upon our actions to maintain instances low – each now and in autumn.
The idea of a second wave portrays the pandemic as a power of nature that’s past our management. However we have now proof from many international locations {that a} robust public well being system (consisting of widespread testing, contact tracing, isolation and well being help) mixed with public participation in protected behaviour (carrying face coverings, preserving bodily distance, hand washing) is extremely efficient at minimising COVID-19 transmission.
We’re not on the mercy of the virus, now or sooner or later. That is hopeful information, however it places the burden of accountability on all of us. We should hold preventing, however in doing so we must always not concern an inevitable second wave.
